Sunday, December 21, 2008

Futures Trading For Dummies (Duarte), Final Chapter

Goverment Web Sites

The Web sites of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC -- www.cftc.gov), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA -- www.usda.gov), and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (www.federalreserve.gov) are useful in their own ways. If you're a data hound, there's no better place to look than the St. Louis Fed's Web site (stlouisfed.org/default.cfm)

The CFTC Web site is a great resource for reviewing trading laws and regulations and finding out what kind of recent advisory rulings have been handed down. When laws and regulations change, your trading can be affected. These changes can affect anything from higher fees to what you can and can't trade under certain circumstances.

The USDA Web site runs the gamut from importan crop and livestock reports to vital weather information. The USDA site can be of great use to you when you trade commodities.

The Federal Reserve Web site offers the Fed Beige Book, a great summary of where the Fed things the economy has been and is headed. The Beige Book is the Fed's road map for interest rates, and it sets the stage for much of the action in the bond and stock markets.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Web site is full of charts and statistics that I like to use when I'm doing my history homework, such as when I want to see a chart of interest rates for the last several years. This site is also different from the Fed's main Web site in that it has a more news-oriented, less academic feel to it.

General Investment Information Web Sites

The Economy section of the Wall Street Journal.com: This section of Wall Street Journal's Web site is one of my favorites. It's an excellent resource for catching up on the big picture before you trade. The editorial content is first calss, but for a futures trader, the best part is the data library, where you can find charts that chronicle the major economic indicators and enable you to perform a good visual inventory of economic activity.

Investor's Business Daily's "The Big Picture" column: This is a great resource for getting a fix on the overall trend of the stock market. This column can help your timing of stock index futures as it features clear and easy to understand analysis of when the stock market changes its major trend, up or down. This is a subscription service which has an excellent digital web site (www.investors.com), which I highly recommend and use of a daily basis.

Marketwatch.com's "Commodity Summary" (www.marketwatch.com): This summary provides a great overview of the commodities markets, usually with a pretty heavy emphasis on oil. The best part: It's free, but it works better if you register.

Reuters.com (www.reuters.com): Another excellent free news site, I especially like to check out Reuters early in the morning because it offers good summaries of the overnight markets.

Barchart.com (www.barchart.com): The most complete Web-based charting service specializing in the futures markets, Barchart.com offers real-time data to subscribers, but its delayed data and charting are excellent for beginners who are trying to get a grip on the knowledge part of trading befoore they move on to the real thing.

CandlesExplained.com (www.candlesexplained.com): This free site is from Greg Morris, the author of Candlestick Charting Explained (McGraw-Hill). It's a good site for anyone who wants an online review or a quick reference to candelstick charting beyond what's available in this book.

FX-charts.com: You can find free, real-time, foreign exchange charts at www.fx-charts.com/pgs/toolbox_livecharts.php. This is a great place to get a good feel for real-time charts in the currency market. The charts also have indicators that you choose, including the ability to draw your own trend lines.

Joe-Duarte.com (www.joe-duarte.com). Sure, this seems like self-promotion, but it's not. If you like what you read in this book, what a better place to get more of the same as well as clarifying any doubts that you may get from time to time. I offer a good deal of market timing information, especially using ETFs for trading energy, stock indexes, and currencies. it is a paid subscription site, but also offers a good deal of free information.

Commodity Exchanges

The Web sites of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME -- www.cme.com), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT www.cbot.com), and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX www.nymex.com) are excellent resources, especially for beginning traders.

All three exchanges provide excellent overviews of the commodities that trade within their jurisdictions, margin requirements, and delayed charting.

Trading Books

Trading Commodities and Financial Futures (Financial Times-Prentice Hall, 2005) is written by George Kleinman, and author with a pure trader's mind-set. It offers an excellent step-by-step guide into the analysis and execution of trading.

Starting Out in Futures Trading, 5th Edition, by Mark J Powers (Probus Publishing, 1993, largely out of print) offers a trader's point of view, moving between an analyst's and an academic's perspective on the futures markets. You can find used copies at very low prices online.

[Duarte also mentions the Murphy Triad, as well as other books]

Newsletter and Magazine Resources

The Hightower Report (www.futures-research.com): As Fred Sanford of Sanford & Son used to say "This is the big one, Elizabeth." The Hightower Report is the m ost widely circulated futures newsletter in the United States, and it covers the entire futures complex.

Consensus National Futures and Financial Weekly (www.consensus-inc.com): This subscriber-supported service, whose major calling-card is its weekly sentiment index, provides a poll of bullish and bearish investors on all commodities and futures, from interest rates to energy and livestock.

Futures Magazine (www.futuresmag.com): The name says it all; it's the monthly bible of the industry covering all aspects of the trade.

Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (www.traders.com): This magazine is written by traders, and it's where I got my start as a writer and analyst. It's a good resource to scan regularly for good trading ideas.

Active Trader: Similar to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities: This publication tends to offer more about short-term trading.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Review of Week of Nov 21-28

Since Nov 21, 2008, I’ve been trying to accomplish a set of about 3 goals. [I wrote this during the last week of November; I had originally planned a two week project into accomplishing these goals, but I feel ill for the entire second week; the following is a summary, though perhaps not complete, of that one week I did spend on these goals. I should probably underline that the following is not a complete summary of the discoveries I made, there are issues that pertain to the constitution of humans, both physical and spiritual, that I have not included, but have kept in a journal in the form of many scribbles and a few diagrams -- the understanding of the physico-spiritual constitution of the human, however, is far from complete.]

1. To fully understand how to manifest things, i.e. to fully understand the process of accomplishing things.

Regarding this goal, I have discovered that, basically the system of 7 chakras provides a nice framework for the different steps necessary to accomplish any goal, namely,

The capacity to think because all manifestation begins as a thought,

The capacity to imagine, because imagination fills out and adds specificity to the thought

The capacity to communicate, both to oneself and to others about what you want to manifest, this capacity helps to root the goal in one’s life, and involves three essential elements, first, the statement of the goal itself, then the addition of a time element (e.g. a deadline) and lastly, the establishment of a measure of success (how do you know when the goal is accomplished?). I’ll speak more about these issues below.

The capacity to cultivate relationships and resources that are necessary to accomplish the goal. This capacity is generally the ability to relate to all things outside of oneself in order to manifest the goal, and that includes both relationships with people (the labor), and with resources (the ability to gather them).

The capacity to exercise the will. Nothing is truly manifested but through the exercise of the will, it is the most important capacity we possess to accomplish any goal!

The capacity to feel – which allows us to get truly involved in the accomplishment of the goal and also to help us to make the right decisions, choices necessary to succeed. The latter assertion would imply that most decisions, including the right ones!, are based on feelings rather than thoughts. This may sound counterintuitive, but the ability to get in touch with our own feelings is truly the essential ingredient in sound decision making.

Lastly, the capacity to have, to enjoy the fruits of our own labor!

Some Further Explanations

The capacity to communicate, both to oneself and to others about what you want to manifest – this includes, I believe adding a time element to your goal – when you want it done by – and adding a “measure of success” element, that is, how do you know when your goal will be accomplished – this is part of communicating to yourself or others about the goal. Other than the goal itself, the time element and the measure of success are the two most important elements of defining the goal, and if they’re not established, then it may be said that no goal has been set!

The time element and the measure of success are, I believe, very key to accomplishing anything. The trickiest of these is the measure of success and it’s a big reason why it’s so difficult to be a self made person in this world, we’re so encouraged to work for somebody else rather than set up our own standards of success. This process of standard setting involves a potentially long process of soul searching to discover one’s ultimate
value, goal, mission, purpose, motivation, and meaning. Truly knowing one’s ultimate goal, for example, is no mean feat! It is a worthy goal in and of itself, and I believe in order for it to be truly accomplished one must be fully initiated into the workings of oneself and all of nature and the universe – this is precisely what initiation offers, and finding one’s ultimate purpose is, I believe, a key part of the discipline of “Transformational Psychology” – that is the application of transcendental philosophy/the fruits of initiation to practical life. What I’m saying is that one must be a Buddha, a Christ, a Pythagoras, in order to truly know one’s ultimate value, goal, mission, i.e., one must have all the facts, all the knowledge, all the information in order to make a truly informed decision about what one’s ultimate purpose is – any attempt at knowing this purpose before gathering all the facts is simply groping in the dark (welcome to my life!).

Nevertheless, today (Nov 26) I spent some time reflecting on what may be my ultimate purpose, and something causes me to reject the simple answer “to be happy”. Besides, I believe happiness is a byproduct of fulfilling your goal, purpose, etc. It’s how we know we’re doing things right! Therefore, I don’t buy the notion that it is worthy of pursuit in and of itself. The “pursuit of happiness” is better left to those who believe that life, and more specifically human life, has no ultimate purpose. Similarly, “success” is the result of obeying the principles of right doing and right living, and not something worthy of pursuit in and of itself. It has been a sad cause of retardation of my own personal development that I believed the opinion of others that happiness and success are more than simply shadows or reflections of finding and living one’s true purpose. Happiness is the pursuit of those who work for a living, not for those who perform, instead, their life’s work!

After some reflection today, I’ve come up with a few tentative answers, as follows.

Basically, there are three elements as to what I believe is my ultimate purpose (I use the other terms, mission, goal, etc. as semi-synonyms). These three are, MASTERY, UNDERSTANDING, and WHOLENESS.

Now, as regards to the ultimate purpose of my life, I believe it is no different than the ultimate purpose of the species to which I belong, i.e. humanity. I borrow from Genesis Chapter 1, where men and women were created on the sixth day to be the shepherds of the earth, to be lords of the earth, everything on it, and everything in it, to tend to this “garden.” That purpose I equate with MASTERY, to lord over, to shepherd, to sustain, to tend, etc. We are like “the keepers” on this physical plane of existence; just like Christ is the keeper of the soul (of Christians) we are supposed to be the keepers of the earth. We’re like physical angels, tending over the physical realm. Of course we’re not doing a very good job at the moment.

Now, though my understanding might be a little muddy here, I believe mastery is the natural result of a combination of UNDERSTANDING and WHOLENESS. Understanding is something involved in the process of growth, and involves a “breaking” of the original WHOLENESS that most of us are born with into its component parts. WHOLENESS is the true meaning of the word HEALING, and implies BALANCE, but not just BALANCE but a full possession on the part of the individual (and on a broader scale the species) of all of his capacities and potentialities. So we’re born whole, full of creative expression, spirituality (children are much more in touch with their spiritual nature than adults), vitality, energy, curiosity, capacity to learn, all of our capacities are obvious in children. But, there is a process of GROWTH that involves a breaking up of that wholeness into its component parts, which if properly performed, involves the UNDERSTANDING of the exact constitution of that original WHOLENESS. At the age of adulthood, 18, or 21, we should, then, re-attain the WHOLENESS we were born with, but this time with full UNDERSTANDING. It is the combination of WHOLENESS and UNDERSTANDING that leads to our true purpose, MASTERY.

The fifth element in the accomplishment of any goals is the exercise of the will. I’ve come to believe that exerting effort and force is antithetical to the true exercise of the will. The will is a capacity, a function that we cannot turn off, it’s the function of our 3rd chakra to will, just like it’s the function of our liver to purify, store energy, etc. and the function of our mind is to think, we cannot turn off our wills, and yet we don’t feel every second of every day that we’re forcing or making an effort. Now, I believe that the will properly defined is “the capacity of the individual to effect consciously controlled change”. And its effective use can come only from the development of the quality known as SELF-ESTEEM. SELF-ESTEEM is a tricky notion not properly defined in mainstream culture or perhaps even mainstream psychology. It is not “self-image” or “one’s regard for oneself”, but rather, one’s capacity to say “I am capable,” “I can”, it is the belief the individual has in his or her capacity to DO and to ACCOMPLISH. It is a belief, i.e., little more than a thought pattern, a discipline or habit of mind.

To properly direct our will towards the accomplishment of any task we desire to accomplish, we must have the following thought pattern sufficiently ingrained in our subconscious thinking: “I have the capacity to [statement of goal, e.g. find a romantic partner, get a better job]” The exercise of the will therefore in the accomplishment of any goal involves the cultivation of a discipline of mind (some people, the high achievers, are already blessed with this discipline of mind), a sufficient possession/control of one’s own mind, or more specifically, one’s thoughts. The cultivation of the skill of thought-control is key therefore to exercising one’s will. The third goal, see below, speaks to the issue of how exactly one can go about controlling one’s own thoughts in order to effect change in one’s life.

Incidentally, SELF ESTEEM is contrasted with the notion of SELF-VALUE or SELF-WORTH. The latter two, I equate with each other, and I believe they signify one’s believe in one’s RIGHT TO HAVE. This relates to self-respect. People with self-value/self-worth believe they deserve a certain basic degree of respect and will not be found abusing themselves (with drugs for example) or tolerating abuse from others. People with high self-value/worth do not tolerate getting their rights trampled on.

It is instructive to compare the personalities of those who are missing, alternately, the traits of self-esteem or self-value. For example, a child that is very spoiled, that gets everything he or she asks for, may grow up with high self-worth – a strong sense of entitlement. Nothing wrong with that, but if everything is done for him or her, he or she may find one day that he or she has no belief in his or her capacity to DO anything, make money, take out the trash, cook dinner. Here we find high self-value (having), low self-esteem (doing).

[N.B. I had originally a paragraph here regarding an example of someone with low self-value and high self-esteem. It appears to be missing! Basically, the ultimate example of low self-value, high self-esteem is a slave -- someone who may be able to perform tasks, various and wonderful, but does not believe in his or her ability to own the fruits of their own labor, i.e. to have.]

2. To develop the ability, skill of actually accomplishing things, of manifesting my desires and my thoughts.

As far as my progress with this goal, I’ve found that the ability to accomplish goals does not stem from writing them down, imagining them accomplished, communicating them, or acquiring relationships or resources – that is to say, the most important step in the accomplishment of any goal is the 5TH step, the exercise of the will. Also, the “exercise” of the will is a bit misleading – remember, I said above that the will wills, every minute of everyday, and no one can stop their will from willing, what is required to develop the ability to accomplish goals is to acquire the capacity to direct the will to the accomplishment of whatever task you have set. Again, to direct one’s will does not entail forcing or making an effort, these things work against the will and are a sign that you have not properly directed your will the goal you have set. So, we’ve established that the most important ability when it comes to developing the skill of accomplishing things is the ability to direct your will to the accomplishment of your goal. The question then is, how is the will directed? I’ve already said that it’s not through force or effort, so, what is it? The will is properly directed towards your goal in proportion to only one variable, namely, your degree of belief in your capacity to carry out that goal. It is your fundamental belief or conviction in your own ability to actually accomplish the goal that determines, ultimately, whether or not you will accomplish it. It follows logically from this that once you have sufficient belief or conviction in your capacity to accomplish the goal, all other stages in the process of goal accomplishment, from imagination, to gathering resources, from emotional involvement to communication of the goal to yourself or others, all these tend to fall into place quite naturally.

3. a) To develop the power and ability to control my thoughts, to control my mind, to control my subconscious thoughts, including my subconscious thoughts.

Thought has no value whatsoever if it is not in line with truth. What value is an erroneous thought? It is the very purpose of thought to mend the error of our ways. Therefore, I believe that the only way to truly control our thinking is to make sure that our thoughts are in line with truth. We must fervently guard against error, especially error in thinking.

Regarding my progress with this goal, I’ve decided that in order to take control and possession of one’s own thoughts, one must make certain, to the degree that one can, that one’s thoughts are in line with TRUTH. It is truth’s function to amend error, and to correct our poor patterns (discipline) of thought and behavior. The foundation of our lives must be truth, and our thoughts must be in line with truth. All suffering, pain, and misery may be a result of the negation of truth, be that believing in lies or trusting in error. Therefore, all happiness, health, wealth, etc., is the result of the affirmation of truth.

One way to make sure our thoughts are in line with truth is to seek out truth, i.e. to never accept authority for truth, but only accept truth as the authority. It is only the greatest of all historical figures that have done so, and many have bravely given up their lives simply because those around them were not ready to mend their own erroneous thinking.

The second, and only other way I know of, to make sure our thoughts are in line with truth, is to AFFIRM TRUTH! The true power of affirmations is granted to those whose affirmations are rooted in truth.

Incidentally, it is transformational psychology that is the only form of psychology that seeks to apply truth to daily living, its goal is an error free life, a life built upon rock and not sand, a life built with a secure foundation, namely truth – the absence of error and belief in falsehood. The ultimate value of science, also incidentally, is truth – this much is obvious from Karl Popper’s famous assertion that no scientific thesis can be deemed worthy of the name unless it is falsifiable! That is, unless its veracity can be checked! Truth is the foundational value of science.

[I realize I have repeated myself quite a bit in this section, and the following is also somewhat of a repetition. I should also state that I found out quite early on in the week-long foray into these goals that there is a link between affirmation of truth and the proper direction of the will towards the accomplishment of any goal -- and it pertains precisely to the subconscious pattern of thinking involved in directing the will mentioned in section 1 above, namely "I have the capacity to [insert goal here].] Science arose from a rebellion against false doctrine. The scientific revolution was precisely that, a revolution of rebels against false doctrine, false belief. It arose from the work of men whose conviction was that truth existed apart from human beliefs, desires, and wishes, and that a life lived in error was truly not a life worth living.

[Digression] The ultimate value of religion is absolute truth (though not mass religion, who’s ultimate value is deception and therefore enslavement of the unthinking). Science may be said to share the same ultimate value, which is why science and religion were never separate entities among the learned of antiquity. The ultimate value of modern science is relative truth – that is to say, assertions whose veracity can be checked (K. Popper) through a) the senses that we have all agreed that we share with each other (those that claim to have senses beyond the 5 ‘consensus senses’ are relegated to research beyond the scientific, called the ‘paranormal’ – even though these people may share the same ultimate value of modern science – relative truth), and b) through the comparison of that assertion with other verified assertions in a manner pleasing to our rational nature. This two-fold aspect of attaining to the ultimate value of modern science – relative truth – is summarized in the two words that encapsulate what is known as “the scientific method”, namely, “inductive logic” – which perhaps could also be called “empirical reason.” Is it not strange that modern science says, therefore, that “as it is on earth, so it is in heaven,” (inductive logic) whereas the theologian says, and has always said “as it is in heaven, so it is on earth.” (the Lord's Prayer). The fact is that if either of these statements is correct, then they both are. And, the fact that they’re both correct is precisely the reason why ancient wisdom never allowed these two complementary currents of thought to be separated in the first place.

3. b) to understand what role thought plays in manifestation.

Regarding this goal I have come to believe that thought plays a secondary role in the process of manifestation when compared to the will. The exercise of the will is the most important of the requirements in the manifestation of any goal. Of course, one cannot have a goal without being able to think, but thought does not make things happen, only the will makes things happen – in that sense the will is almost synonymous with manifestation itself. Such is what I’ve come to believe. Having said that, I’ve come to believe that the will is properly directed and exercised not through conscious effort or forcing oneself to accomplish the goal, but rather the will is unleashed when one has cultivated the thought pattern “I have the capacity to [insert goal here].” Without the thought pattern, the will cannot unleash its power towards the accomplishment of that goal. The key to accomplishing anything is to awaken the will.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Aymen Fares 2

The Purpose of Life

One of the first questions to answer is that of why are you actually here. What is the purpose of being alive? This is different to the question what is the purpose of your life.

Your ultimate goal is to rejoin with the all-encompassing energy force that most people call God. Whether you believe in God or not is irrelevant. There is an intelligent energy source that permeates throughout the universe and binds it together. Call it God or whatever you like. I don't care; neither does God.

Ultimately you are here on a path to rejoin with this energy source. You are already a part of it and your mission is to become one with it again. I say again because originally that's where you started.

You rejoin with the energy source very simply by refining your energy and increasing your vibration. Over time this enables you to move through the different dimensions and ultimately rejoin with the source that is God.

Before you need to attend to this, you first have to master the physical dimension that you are now operating in. You are born onto the earth for a reason. You are given physical circumstances so that you can do something physical in them. This may just be a matter of survival or the task at hand may be your enlightenment. Everyone is different. Enlightenment is the ability to listen to your soul and allow its light to shine through you. There are different degrees of enlightenment, and when you are fully enlightened you don't need your physical body anymore -- you will be able to move to a higher dimension.

Self-improvement is the way through the physical dimension. Yes, it's really that simple. Through self-improvement you refine the energy that is you. This heightens your vibration and it allows you to eventually move through the physical realm. You improve your self by living, experiencing and learning from your experience.

Self-improvement is the purpose of your life. Rejoining with the source is the purpose of life. You will learn more about the meaning of life further on in this text.

For self-improvement to take place there must be change.

Steinitz' 4 Rules of Strategy

1. The right to attack belongs to the side that has a positional advantage, and that side not only has the right to attack but also the obligation to do so, or else his advantage may evaporate. The attack should be concentrated on the weakest square in the opponent's position.

2. If in an inferior position the defender should be ready to defend and make compromises, or take other measures such as a desperate counter attack.

3. In an equal position the opponents should maneuver trying to achieve a position in which they have an advantage. If both sides play correctly, an equal position will remain equal.

4. The advantage may be a big indivisible one (for example a rook on the seventh rank) or it may be a whole series of small advantages. The goal of the stronger side is to store up the advantages and to convert temporary advantages to permanent ones.

Aymen Fares 1

Let me tell you a Sioux Indian Story that can be found at my website www.Spiritual.com.au

The Creator gathered all of Creation and said,

"I want to hide something from the humans until they are ready for it. It is the realization that they create their own reality."

The eagle said, "Give it to me, I will take it to the moon."

The Creator said, "No. One day they will go there and find it."

The salmon said, "I will bury it on the bottom of the ocean."
"No. They will go there too."

The buffalo said, "I will bury it on the Great Plains."
The Creator said, "They will cut into the skin of the Earth and find it even there."

Grandmother Mole, who lives in the breast of Mother Earth, and who has no physical eyes but sees with spiritual eyes said,

"Put it inside of them."
And the Creator said, "It is done."

World markets mixed after Fed’s historic rate cut

December 17, 2008 · By Adam · Filed Under General

World markets mixed after Fed’s historic rate cut

By LOUISE WATT Associated Press Writer

(AP:LONDON) World stock markets were mixed Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its key interest rate to historic lows and as worries lingered about the world’s largest economy and a weakening dollar.

By afternoon in Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 was up 0.19 percent to 4,317.41, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.67 percent to 4,698.31. France’s CAC-40 dropped 0.33 percent to 3,240.95, with shares in BNP Paribas plunging around 16 percent after the bank revealed steep losses in investment banking.

U.S. stocks were expected to be lower after rallying on the Fed rate cut Tuesday. Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 1.28 percent to 8,777.00 and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures were down 1.44 percent to 899.70.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Six Factors Affect International Currency Rates

The most important influences on currency values are:

  1. Interest rates: As a rule higher interest rates lead to higher currency prices [and vice versa]
  2. Inflation rates: Higher inflation tend to lead to a weaker currency. This general rule doesn't apply when the rate of inflation is leading a county's central bank to raise interest rates. in that case, despite higher inflation, the markets are likely to bid up that county's currency as they expect interest rates there to continue to rise.
  3. Current account status: Countries that tend to export more than they import tend to have stronger currencies than countries that import more than they export. This relationship is soft, however, because some countries, such as Japan, purposely keep their respective currencies weak by selling them in the open market just to keep their exports high. These countries don't export their currencies; instead, their central banks sell them into the open market just to keep their exports high. These countries don't export their currencies; instead, their central banks sell them into the open market by making trades just like any other trading desk. The net effect is to increase the amount of a country's currency that is floating in the markets, thus decreasing its value to indirectly affect the balance of trade.
  4. Budget status: Countries with budget surplus, again, as a general rule, tend to have stronger currencies than countries with budget deficits. This rule also is soft, because it doesn;t hold up all the time. For example, the United States has a chronic budget and current-account deficits, but the U.S. dollar experiences long rallies in which its strength is quite impressive.
  5. Political stability: Along with interest rates and economic fundamentals, politics are more than likely the most consistent determinants of the exchange rates that are quoted on a regular basis. Despite a fairly strong economy, an otherwise strong dollar during the Clinton administration suffered during the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
  6. Foreign policy: The U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency was damaged by the war in Iraq. In fact, the dollar was already weakening before the war started as traders feared Bush administration policies, such as lower taxes and potential for increased government. The 9/11 attacks, with their negative effects on the U.S. economy and the spiraling costs of the war indeed led to a series of U.S. budget deficits, and the dollar continued to weaken into 2008.
From Duarte, Trading Futures for Dummies

Mises' Major Works

  1. Theory of Money and Credit (1912) [first major]
  2. “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth,” (1920) [important article]
  3. Socialism(1922) [elaboration of article]
  4. Liberalism (1927)
  5. Interventionism (1929)
  6. Omnipotent Government (1944)
  7. Human Action (1949) [most important]
  8. Theory and History (1957) [last major]

Von Mises Philosophy

During this period, in his first great work, The Theory of Money and Credit (1912) Mises performed what had been deemed an impossible task: to integrate the theory of money into the general theory of marginal utility and price (what would now be called integrating “macroeconomics” into “microeconomics.”) Since Bohm-Bawerk and his other Austrian colleagues did not accept Mises’s integration and remained without a monetary theory, he was therefore obliged to strike out on his own and found a “neo­-Austrian” school.

In his monetary theory, Mises revived the long forgotten British Currency School principle, prominent until the 1850s, that society does not at all benefit from any increase in the money supply, that increased money and bank credit only causes inflation and business cycles, and that therefore government policy should maintain the equivalent of a 100 percent gold standard.

Mises added to this insight the elements of his business cycle theory: that credit expansion by the banks, in addition to causing inflation, makes depressions inevitable by causing “malinvestment,” i.e. by inducing businessmen to overinvest in “higher orders” of capital goods (machine tools, construction, etc.) and to underinvest in consumer goods.

The problem is that inflationary bank credit, when loaned to business, masquerades as pseudo-savings, and makes businessmen believe that there are more savings available to invest in capital goods production than consumers are genuinely willing to save. Hence, an inflationary boom requires a recession which becomes a painful but necessary process by which the market liquidates unsound investments and reestablishes the investment and production structure that best satisfies consumer preferences and demands.

----------------

The policy prescriptions for business cycles of Mises-Hayek and of Keynes were diametrically opposed. During a boom period, Mises counseled the immediate end of all bank credit and monetary expansion; and, during a recession, he advised strict laissez-faire, allowing the readjustment forces of the recession to work themselves out as rapidly as possible.

mises.org

Thursday, December 04, 2008